Can't Anybody Play This Here Game
August 19, 2010
If only the late, great Casey Stengel were managing the economy, we might chalk up some wins. With this morning's disappointing jump in weekly jobless claims to a nine-month high of 500,000 and signs of weakness in manufacturing, Wall Street is back on its heels, worried that Main Street will never get back on its feet.

With the August recess in force and nothing likely to pass Congress between now and mid-term elections, we have a lame-duck period in which the economy will continue to languish, leaving the market at further risk of an extended losing streak.

That just leads me back to Stengel. Like the early New York Mets, this Administration and this Congress, have found "new ways to lose I never knew existed before."

The Obama Administration and Democratic congress have won everything except the game they were supposed to win… to defeat weak economic growth and beat back joblessness -- a job nowhere near done.

As a consequence, interest rates are collapsing again, today, with the 2-year Treasury Note yield at a record low 48 basis points and the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note at 2.57 percent. These yields are screaming about the risk of new recession and another bout of deflation.

Stock prices are range bound, edging toward the lower end of their recent trading band, while commodities, like oil, are beginning to slide in a worrisome fashion.

Real estate has yet to rebound and yet, no one has revived the tax credits that successfully propped up residential real estate until their May expiration.

With the Congressional Budget Office raising deficit estimates for the next several years, we can forget about the Administration doing anything meaningful to boost economic growth.

The Fed is now an Atlas that cannot shrug and must bear the weight of the whole economy on its shoulders.

My bet is that the Fed soon will be forced to take dramatic steps to increase not the supply of money, but the so-called "velocity" of money, or turnover rate, so that the $11 trillion in cash building up on the economy's sidelines will get lent and spent.

The Fed has tools to make this happen and without such a maneuver, the economy will likely slip toward a double-dip recession.

Ben Bernanke is our Casey Stengel. Let's hope he finds some New York Yankees to help him play this game, as opposed to the expansion New York Mets.

At this point, anyone else in Washington doesn't even qualify as groundskeeper.
Related:  jobless claimswall street
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