I'm a Fed-Watcher ... I'm a Fed-Watcher
August 9, 2010
This is what my life has come to. As the song said, I used to be a girl-watcher. But as one gets older and settles down, one's obsession is replaced by another.

So, now I'm a Fed-Watcher and there is no better week to be one than this week. The Federal Reserve meets tomorrow and will render a verdict on the economy at about 2:15 p.m., EDT. It is widely expected that the Fed will officially downgrade its assessment of future economic growth prospects and possibly hint at new measures aimed at stimulating the economy.

Those measures could include buying more mortgage and Treasury bonds; the net effect is to infuse more money into the banking system and keep short- and long-term interest rates quite low, for as far as the eye can see.

I would prefer that the Fed more than hint at this and, instead, announce a new program of what is described as "Quantitative Easing" (QE).

"QE II," a rapid expansion of the nation's money supply and associated reduction in interest rates, could help bust the economy through Alan Greenspan's "invisible wall," which the economy hit in May and June.

(In the interest of full disclosure, I own an ETF bond position that presumably would benefit from such a maneuver -- but I have been calling for that long before I made my most recent trade. I also bought SPYDERS this morning, an ETF proxy for the S&P 500.)

To mix a variety of metaphors in this piece, I also think it's time for "Kitchen Sink II." The Fed and the Federal Government, as they did at the depths of the economic crisis, should throw everything they can at this economy to make sure it does not fall back into recession and suffer from an extended bout of deflation.

Whether it's extending the Bush tax cuts, offering a payroll tax holiday, or ordering Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to forgive debts on the "underwater" principal balances on 15 million American mortgages, I believe they should try it all.

If it doesn't work, deficits will rise as the economy sinks into the abyss and all the talk about rising deficits will be an academic discussion, because they'll be getting larger as growth implodes.

If it does work, growth will beget higher tax receipts, the short-term deficit will come down and, coincident with a long-term, deficit-reduction plan, the U.S. can right this ship.

This is a big week for Fed actions and commentary, for D.C. trial balloons and new ideas to hit Washington, Wall Street and Main Street.

While they likely will be motivated by politics and the mid-term elections, we can only hope that the results will lead to a stronger economy that allows us to care less about politics and more about securing an economic recovery that is durable, sustainable and lasts for more than just one presidential cycle... for a change.
Related:  Fed
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