Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics
August 4, 2010
Mark Twain popularized the phrase, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." The phrase has been attributed to others, but Twain is credited with popularizing its use when using numbers to justify an unjustifiable argument.
Deficit hawks frequently have been using statistics to place the blame for our ballooning budget deficits and national debt at the feet of President Obama.
To be sure, I am no fan of this administration's economic policies. I had spoken out against the stimulus program, when it was constructed and have been quite critical of its impact on the economy and jobs, since it passed Congress.
I have great reservations about the unintended economic consequences and long-term costs of the Health Care Reform Act, just as I do the Financial Regulatory Reform bill recently signed into law.
But the President's critics, who blame him for fiscal recklessness, need to revisit our fiscal history books.
President Bush, many of whose policies I agreed with at various points along the road, doubled the national debt during his eight years in office.
He began his tenure with the national debt totaling about $5 trillion and left office with the debt totaling nearly $10 trillion.
Of the additional $3 trillion added since President Obama took office, roughly $1.2 trillion of last year's $1.47-trillion deficit was inherited by the Obama Administration -- as a consequence of the financial bailout, the costs associated with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the reduced tax receipts that resulted from the recession.
In short, the national debt inherited by President Obama was roughly $11.2 trillion, compared to the current $13.5-trillion total. The rest has been built up on his watch and will continue to increase unless the economy revives, the defense budget is brought down and healthcare costs come under control.
I worry most about the economic impact of healthcare reform legislation, and less so about the $870-billion stimulus package, which was spread over three years and is not yet fully spent.
On an annual basis, the stimulus package added about $300 billion to the deficit and debt -- a virtual rounding error in a $14-trillion economy, in which defense spending on the wars is adding $1 trillion a year to the red ink -- while entitlement spending, from past administrations, remains the largest single contributor to our fiscal woes.
Vigorous economic growth would go a long way toward raising tax receipts and reducing the short-run deficits, which is why I support extending the Bush tax cuts for another two years, for all income groups.
I also support taking a two-year break from payroll withholding taxes and ending both wars to offset the costs of further stimulating the economy. Since we have no political solution to the problems in Iraq and Afghanistan, there seems to be no reason to waste the precious resources of American lives and squander further precious dollars that can be otherwise allocated to helping a gutted middle class find gainful, peace-time employment.
The real question about our economy is not about President Obama's inability to reign in runaway government debt -- 83% of which was accumulated prior to his taking office.
His real economic failure is his inability to focus government stimulus efforts on real job creation.
In the short-run, the deficits are manageable; in the long-run, as economist, John Maynard Keynes, famously said, "We are all Dead." It would be best for our longer-run future to die rich, rather than penniless.